“In the old days books were written by men of letters and read by the public. Nowadays books are written by the public and read by nobody.”

― Oscar Wilde

An average American reads 12 books per year (Pew Research Center) but over 4,000 books are published in the U.S. every day (1.2M in 2018). Obviously, very few titles achieve commercial success. Generally speaking, book sales are correlated with good writing but:

1. A great book doesn’t always find commercial success while strong marketing and PR can spur mediocrity to prominence
2. Renown books speak to broad audiences. Lesser-known titles often have a stronger impact on individual readers. 

We shouldn’t judge a book by its cover but we rarely start reading without having preconceived expectations. This post is primarily about honing the skills of building well-grounded assumptions which will help us choose better books. To achieve this, in a 2-part series of we will talk about:

• Which crucial skills/attributes do good writers must have
• External/Internal competency matrix and why we need writers who possess both qualities
• Why top experts don’t necessarily turn out to be good authors
• What are the main author-related predictors of a successful book
• Two short case studies that support the above-mentioned ideas
• How do we account for and understand the exceptions
• The takeaways about recognizing “the greatness gene” in books

Surprisingly awesome or expectedly great?

It is hardly surprising that after the Harry Potter release J.K. Rowling has the bestselling Midas touch. But sometimes we observe books that seemingly out of nowhere spur to the top of charts and the spotlight of public debate. As we will see, such outcomes are not that surprising if we look closer at the backgrounds and skill sets of writers. In this context, the famous 10,000 Hour Rule is quite limiting and one-dimensional so we will dive deeper. The practical takeaway is that we can better distinguish worthwhile reads even if a book didn’t cause much public resonance yet (or even at all). 

Writing books is a special and demanding type of work

A book is a form of communication and great communicators know that they need to adapt to their audience. Not only do they need to know well what they are talking about, but also who they are talking to. 

Talking with pure experts

When we get to hear from top experts they often either talk on a level way over our heads, talk down to us like we are kids, or simply bore us to death with unengaging delivery. This is when we feel that something is broken in the communication channel between us (as the audience) and the communicator. Experts have the internal competency of knowledge and subject-matter experience but often lack the external competency of communication and leadership. (top left corner in the quadrant below)

Talking with charismatic pretenders

On the other hand, some people are great at speaking, writing, and presenting, but may be incompetent. If we blindly follow their charisma, we will sooner or later pay for it. They can deceive and mislead us for a substantial amount of time before we recognize their tactics. These are the masters of external competency of communication and leadership. It is worth noting that the problem is not with the skill itself but with how it might be exploited. (bottom right corner in the quadrant below)

If we segment people by the presence or lack of internal and external competency, the following picture emerges:

The above graph is concerned with the realm of business and leadership. Meanwhile the same applies to being an author. 

Skill development and public expectations

Mastering just one of these skills (external or internal competency) is already a huge achievement. Somehow we expect that when it comes to writing, a good author always should have both. If it is a non-fiction book I want the author to be a top-notch seasoned industry expert; if it is a novel, I want it to be written by someone who has a deep understanding of the intricacies of the human soul. And, of course, I always want the book I read to be written in an engaging and strikingly captivating manner i.e. as D’Angelo would say:

How subject matter experts fail at writing books

Since a book is a mass-market product in a digital age, the fake expert/leader type of writer is easily exposed (most of the time). Much more pain and disappointment are inflicted on readers by experts who fail to communicate their knowledge effectively, examples are:

• a hedge fund manager who spent decades talking to investment analysts and board room members writes a book on financial management for wannabe financiers
• an ultra-athlete used to working with pro coaches and world-class partners writes a book about health, diet, or physical performance for the masses
• a renowned software developer decides to try himself in teaching and writes a book for beginners

These are just a few examples of what may or, surprisingly but quite commonly,  may not turn out to be good books. To understand why books with seemingly all the necessary prerequisites of greatness fail to deliver up to the expectations they generate, we have to introduce the concept of a “job leap.” Every new book presents new challenges for the author. To raise to the challenge the writer needs to leap in one or several areas of the job he/she has signed up for:

• Audience type and/or size. Playing with a band at a local party is different from performing at the Madison Square Garden. The writer needs to consider the level of sophistication of his readers, their homogeneity in terms of life outlooks, beliefs, and backgrounds, as well as the sheer volume of the audience. It takes time, effort, and ingenuity to develop a resonant voice that speaks to a particular audience.
• Topic/area of expertise. A beginner’s mind is a great asset when tackling challenging problems but to write a book the author needs to be adept at the subject.
• Content form factor. Twitter posts, blog articles, scientific papers, screenplays, long reads, and finally books are very different forms of writing. One can’t master writing but only some form of it. Switching between different domains is not guaranteed to lead to good results.

The larger the combined job leap across all these categories, the higher the chance that the author will have shortcomings in his work. The developer who occasionally writes short blog posts and does one-on-one lessons might stay in his topic (no leap there) but when it comes to writing a book he/she makes major leaps in:

• relevant audience size (from personal blog subscribers to potentially millions thanks to wide distribution by a publisher)
• content form factor (mini-blog to book)

The same goes for the athlete’s or hedge fund manager’s examples. They stay within their area of expertise but make huge leaps in who they communicate to and what the medium of that communication is.

Part 1 conclusion

A book is a product that should deliver on a promise to its target audience. The most promising scenario is when the author has both external and internal competencies of understanding the audience and the subject at the same time. Competencies are developed through practice so we should look into the backgrounds of the authors to ensure they have sufficient experience in writing:

• for similar audiences 
• on similar topics 
• using similar mediums of communication. 

The concept of a job leap can also help us see if an author is out of his depth when writing.

Coming in part 2

In part two of the series, we will explore a few illustrative examples and review further the Job Leap graph...